The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Chile is an essential tool to measure inflation and analyze the behavior of prices in the country. This indicator reflects the variation in the prices of a basket of goods and services representative of the consumption of Chilean households. In recent years, the CPI has been a topic of great interest for both economists and citizens in general due to its direct impact on purchasing power and the national economy. Throughout 2023, Chile has experienced moderate inflation, influenced by various internal and external factors. These include fluctuations in international raw material prices, the monetary policies adopted by the Central Bank of Chile, and the dynamics of supply and demand within the country. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the CPI has shown a trend towards stability with controlled increases, reflecting efforts to maintain a balanced economy.
For the year 2024, CPI projections in Chile present a cautiously optimistic outlook. Various economic and financial entities, such as the Central Bank of Chile and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have made estimates based on analysis of current and future market conditions. The Central Bank of Chile has indicated that it will maintain a prudent monetary policy, adjusting interest rates in accordance with the evolution of inflation and other macroeconomic indicators. These measures are expected to contribute to maintaining inflation within the target range of 3% ± 1 percentage point.
The evolution of the prices of oil, food and other imported goods will play a crucial role in determining the CPI. A stabilization in international prices could help control domestic inflation. The post-pandemic economic recovery has generated an increase in demand for goods and services. However, this demand is expected to stabilize in 2024, which will contribute to lower inflationary pressure. The government’s fiscal policies will also influence CPI projections. A focus on fiscal consolidation and public spending control could help mitigate inflationary pressures. Annual inflation is projected to remain around 3%, in line with the Central Bank’s objective. Furthermore, economic growth, measured through Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is expected to be moderate, which will support controlled inflation. Interest rates could undergo minor adjustments, but will remain at levels that do not generate significant inflationary pressures. CPI projections in Chile for 2024 reflect an optimistic but cautious approach. Maintaining inflation within the target range will be a challenge that will depend on the interaction of various economic factors, both internal and external. The monetary policy of the Central Bank of Chile and international market conditions will be key determinants in the evolution of the CPI. In an ideal scenario, inflation is expected to remain controlled, ensuring economic stability and the purchasing power of Chileans.
Manuel Cea Acevedo, director of the Business Administration Engineering program at the Andrés Bello University, Viña del Mar Campus.
 in Chile: Projections for 2024){kind=link}