“I have the impression that we have betrayed our deepest values. “I think of my grandparents and they did not resist the Nazis so that now we leave their heirs in power.” Agathe Mougel, 27 years old and who works in the fashion sector, is clear: in the early legislative elections, the identity of France is at stake, threatened by a possible rise to power of Marine Le Pen’s far-right. “I am very worried, especially for my parents who are of Algerian origin. The National Reunification (RN, far right) opposes dual nationality and could force them to return to their country,” acknowledges Anaïs Cheik, 23, a university student in foreign languages.
It was seven in the afternoon on Saturday and testimonies like these abounded among the tens of thousands of people who arrived at the Place de la Nation, in Paris. Between 640,000 people (according to the unions) and 250,000 (police) had demonstrated that day against the extreme right throughout the French territory. Called by the main unions – from the moderate CFDT to the combative CGT – these protests, especially the one in the French capital, represented a good starting signal for the Popular Ecological and Social Front’s campaign.
Insoumise France retains its role as a driving force (it will appear in 230 constituencies), but the Socialist Party gains weight (175) compared to the NUPES coalition of 2022
The resumption of a unitary alliance of the left has been the most notable movement of the last ten days of information vertigo in the neighboring country. The Popular Front has started the campaign as the main alternative to Le Pen. According to the latest polls, which should be taken with a grain of salt, this coalition has a voting intention of between 28.5% and 25% and closely follows the extreme right (35-29.5%). Despite being a fragile alliance without clear leadership, the fear of the extreme right and the unitary will of the progressive electorate, as well as the signs of greater mobilization of young people and the popular classes, nourish the hope of the supporters of the Front. Popular.
“It has been made possible by fear”
“This coalition has been made possible by fear. If there was no union of the left, a victory for the RN could be taken for granted,” political scientist Christophe Bouillaud explains to El Salto. Faced with the real threat that in July there will be a cohabitation Executive with Jordan Bardella (Le Pen’s right-hand man) as prime minister, France Insoumise (affiliated with Podemos or Sumar), the Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communists left aside their divisions and resentments.
Except for specific cases, the result of internal dissidence, in the vast majority of the 577 constituencies there will be a single gauche candidate. Avoiding the dispersion of the vote is key in a double-round electoral system, even more so taking into account the current tripartition of the French political landscape (radical right, left and Macronism). Insubordinate France retains its role as a driving force (it will appear in 230 constituencies), but the Socialist Party gains weight (175) compared to the NUPES coalition of 2022. In order for the Popular Front to see the light, the insubordinate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has taken a step aside, although he does not give up on becoming prime minister.
The quick agreement of the left has thwarted Emmanuel Macron’s plans. Faced with the failure of his party in the European elections – barely 14.6% of the votes, less than half that of the Lepenism (31.4%) -, the French president called that same night these early elections for June 30 (first round) and July 7 (second). He hoped to take advantage of the fragmentation in the progressive space, which marked the campaign in France for the European Parliament. “The left will need a lot of luck if it wants to stay united,” Macron said on the evening of June 9 to his advisers, according to the weekly. L’Express.
“For Macron to believe that he is going to come back in these elections is an almost suicidal thought, since young people and popular categories will go more to vote and this will probably harm him,” adds Boulliaud.
By organizing the elections within the minimum period allowed by law, just three weeks into the campaign, the president hoped to catch his opponents on the wrong foot. But in reality, he has created a trap for his own party. With voting intentions of 19-18%, Macronism has been left out of place. Almost offside. To the point that some of its leaders, such as Aurélien Rousseau, who resigned as Minister of Health in December due to a harsh immigration law, will be part of the Popular Front lists.
The presidential coalition, according to the polls, will come third in many of the constituencies and would not qualify for the second round in many of them. In the legislative elections, a minimum support of 12.5% of those registered on the electoral lists of the respective constituency is required to access the final scrutiny. Although Macron hoped to benefit from the internal tensions in The Republicans (LR, related to the PP), the secret and unilateral pact of the president of that formation with the extreme right, contested by the majority of the conservative barons, has led the decadent Republican right to a split, the consequences of which are unpredictable.
The president “has promoted early elections at a time when his party’s voting intentions are extremely low. This should have prevented him from embarking on an adventure of this style,” says Bouillaud. “For Macron to believe that he is going to come back in these elections is an almost suicidal thought, since young people and popular categories will vote more and this will probably harm him,” adds this professor at Sciences Po Grenoble regarding some categories hostile to Macronism. , due to its neoliberal reforms (in the case of workers), as well as its clearly conservative measures, such as the harsh immigration law or the mandatory nature of a kind of ‘military’ (in the case of young people).
The emergence of Mbappé, Thuram and the influencers
“I have come to represent a mobilized youth,” said Iléa, 17, during Saturday’s protest. “The media is much more critical of the left than of the extreme right,” lamented his high school classmate Clovis, 18, also present at that Parisian demonstration, which stood out for the large presence of young people. One of the most repeated chants was “the youth hate the National Front (historical name of the Le Pen party).” Unlike the cliché repeated by the mainstream media, young French people do not opt for ultranationalism and xenophobia, but rather for progressive ideas.
31% of those under 24 years of age voted for Insoumise France in the European elections, that is, more than triple the national average (10%). In the case of RN, they received 25% of the support in that category, six points less than in all ages (31.4%). Mobilization at the polls will be key for progressive forces to prevent an absolute majority for Le Pen. At the moment, opinion studies point to a participation of 62%, 15 points higher than the 2022 legislative elections.
Collectives such as Attac or Extinction Rebellion have abandoned their classic non-partisan position and have asked for the vote for the Popular Front
Since June 9, influencers have proliferated, such as Squeezie (with 18 million followers on YouTube), asking to vote against lepenism. The audience of left-wing political streamers, such as Jean Massiet or Usul, has grown. To this have been added the calls to stop the extreme right of the French stars of the Bleus, such as Ousmane Dembélé, Marcus Thuram or Kylian Mbappé. “As citizens, we have to fight so that RN does not win,” said Thuram, son of the legendary Lilian, world champion in 1998 and known for his anti-racist commitment, on Saturday. “I share the same values as Marcus,” such as “tolerance, respect and diversity,” the new Real Madrid player insisted on Sunday.
In addition to greater mobilization of young people, the gauche It has greater involvement of the union and association fabric in this campaign. Collectives such as Attac or Extinction Rebellion have abandoned their classic non-partisan position and have asked for the vote for the Popular Front. The CGT, the second union with the largest number of members, will decide today, Tuesday, whether to issue a similar electoral slogan, thus breaking its habit in recent decades of not taking a position between the different parties.
A fragile alliance without a clear leader
The name Popular Front evokes the left-wing Government between 1936 and 1938, initially led by the socialist Léon Blum. Then, mass strikes were key to achieving great social advances, such as paid vacations or 40 hours of work per week, in a period also marked by the rise of fascism in Europe. “The Popular Front is not us (politicians), but the people who work and ask for social justice,” said François Ruffin, a media congressman and free electron of Insoumise France who has played a key role in the emergence of the unitary coalition. , as well as internal tensions.
Until Friday night everything had been going smoothly for the progressive formations. While Macronism remained stunned by the president’s (suicidal?) decision to organize the elections and the Republican right immersed in a pathetic soap opera, the gauche He had acted pragmatically. He had not only agreed with the constituencies, but also on an ambitious socio-ecological program and a break with neoliberalism. For the first 100 days, he proposes increasing the minimum wage to 1,600 euros net (currently it is almost 1,400), blocking the prices of energy and basic necessities and repealing the unpopular pension reform.
Instead of talking about these proposals, however, the news of the Popular Front has been marked since Saturday by its internal tensions. France Insoumise has decided to remove four dissident deputies who have been pressuring since 2022 for Mélenchon to abandon the leadership of the space in favor of other profiles, such as Ruffin or Clementine Autain, both very close to these dissidents and the left wing of the PS.
The candidacy, ultimately aborted, of Adrien Quatennens, a rebellious deputy very close to Mélenchon and sentenced in the fall of 2022 to a four-month conditional prison sentence for having mistreated his wife, has also sparked controversy. Not to mention François Hollande. Without having informed the general secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, the former president will appear in his historic constituency of Corrèze (central France). And he will do so under the label of the Popular Front, that is, defending a program that is the opposite of the neoliberal measures applied during his mandate.
All these controversies have exposed the seams of a fragile coalition. “When they created NUPES, we thought it would be a success, but we were too utopian and that alliance ended up exploding. However, now the left must win, we have no other option,” says Mougel, who says he is not “radical at all.” From the moderate social democrats to the most combative anti-fascist militants, they face this summer’s elections with a single objective: to avoid an absolute majority for Le Pen.
