During June the registered employees they start charging half bonus, half of the best salary of the last semester. Workers who want to maintain the purchase value of the Supplementary Annual Salary (SAC) They will seek to invest it through various financial instruments. Front of inflation, he UVA fixed term appears as an option for more conservative investor profilessince the yield of traditional ones on average is 2.7% monthly (far from inflation, which in CABA was 4.4% during May).
He UVA fixed term It is established for a minimum of 180 days (six months), adjusts for inflationplus one Annual Nominal Rate (TNA) which cannot be less than 1%. Likewise, the investors can make deposits of up to $5,000,000. However, with the marked inflationary slowdown and the negative real ratethe doubt arises as to whether they agree or not.
Bonus 2024: is the UVA fixed term appropriate?
Financial analysts agree that this tool in pesos It has a positive side because it is tied to the inflationbut also a negative, because keeps immobilized the capital for a very long period.
“Inflation will be in the next six months between 32% and 33%. The latest data from Survey of Market Expectations (REM) “They project a CPI of 70% for 12 months, so basically inflation in one year more than doubles the traditional fixed-term rate, that of the Lecaps, but also that of the projected devaluation,” explained the financial analyst. Salvador Di Stefano.
“Private banks have a limited supply of UVA fixed terms, some even offer quotas”specified the CEO of Insider Finance, Pablo Lazzati. However, he assessed that “it is not advisable to have the money tied up for 180 days” and advised investing in CER bondswhich have the same adjustment variable as the UVA, but do not have illiquid capital.
For his part, the economist Jose Bano states that the UVA fixed term “It is a very good alternative” investment, since the Central Bank (BCRA) has a policy of negative real rates and Any instrument tied to inflation beats the fixed term.
“If you think about measuring the results in pesos, it seems like a very good alternative to me. Also I think it is very good compared to the bond curve since, at other times, any CER title beat a UVA fixed term. Now it’s not so easy. In fact, if you look at the recent bond curve you have to go to one which expires in 2026 so that you have a comparable rate and that gives you more volatility in the portfolio“Bano analyzed.
Likewise, Bano highlighted that with the volatility of the bonds the move “can go well or badly.” At the end of six months, a TX26, for example, may yield more because the parity rose, but “for an individual this is a risk,” he said. In that order, she maintained that the negative is that “For six months you cannot touch the money and if you need it, it becomes a fixed rate, which is very low and you are left very exposed to the devaluation of the exchange rate”. In case the dollar wakes up, “everything you did with the rate, you lost with the exchange rate.”
Portfolio diversification due to possible rise in the dollar
Bano also stressed that the six-month period “is perverse, given that a frozen position must be maintained for a long time.” From that point of view, he stated that “many investors prefer to give up a little ratebut build a position with bonds, which when dismantling it, they do it without problems at the moment and change to a position in dollars.”
Meanwhile, the president of Wise, Walter Moralesagreed with Bano about the impossibility of “immediate rescue” of the money invested and highlighted that they usually recommend “mixed funds between Lecaps and stock exchange promissory note that has an assured accrual and an interesting rate”.
For this reason, also Di Stefano assured that “the one-year inflation, it is a big deal to make a UVA fixed term.” “It seems to me that it is the best thing that can happen to you today,” he emphasized.
Finally, the economist Elena Alonso recommended “buy an inflation-adjusted security, a sovereign bond or acquire Lecaps and renew them, since they have a higher yield than the UVA fixed term”. In turn, like Bano, he pointed out the importance of not always staying in pesos and diversifying the portfolio with a investment that is tied to the dollardue to a possible rise in the foreign currency or fall in bonds and yields in pesos.
